NetNews Usenet Archive 1992 #31/NN_1992_31.iso/spool/sci/environm/14094

Text File | 1992-12-30 | 8.5 KB | 159 lines

Newsgroups: sci.environment
Path: sparky!uunet!nwnexus!beauty!josh
From: [e-mail] (Joshua_Putnam)
Subject: Re: Save the Planet and the Economy at the Same time!
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Reply-To: [e-mail]
Organization: Happy Man Corp., Vashon Island, WA 98070-7399
References: <[e-mail]> <[e-mail]> <[e-mail]> <[e-mail]>
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1992 23:18:18 GMT
Lines: 147

In <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Mike Vandeman) writes:

>>What WOULD change my driving habits is a better transit system. The

>That's what they all say. Except that no matter how good the transit gets,
>it is never good enough for them. Transit IS good enough, for those willing
>to use it.

1988, there were 94,312,000 households in the U.S.  Of these,
22,836,000 had family incomes under $15,000, while 9,004,510 had
family incomes over $75,000 (both in 1990 81.3 million of these
households owned motor vehicles.  22.0 million households with
income under $15,000 (1988) owned vehicles, at an average rate of
1.4 vehicles per household, for a total 30.3 million vehicles.  4.5
million households with income over $75,000 owned vehicles, at a
rate of 2.4 vehicles per household, for a total of 10.8 million
vehicles.

Households with income under $15,000 drove 264 billion miles per
year, consuming 15.6 billion gallons of fuel.  Over $75,000 per
year households drove 124 billion miles, consuming 6.3 billion
gallons of fuel.  This works out to an average 16.9 mpg for "poor"
households vs. 19.7 mpg for "rich" households.

The frequently-cited cost per mile of driving, prepared by the
Motor Vehicle Manufacturer's Association, has risen sharply in
recent years, from 27.2 cents in 1985 to 41.0 cents in 1990.
Interestingly, variable costs (gas, oil, maintenance, and tires)
have remained relatively stable, rising from 8.04 cents to 8.40
cents per mile.  Fixed costs, meanwhile, have risen from $2,441
over the ownership period to $3,256, despite an increase in the
projected ownership period to six years and 60,000 miles.

Of the fixed costs included in the MVMA cost per mile, depreciation
is by far the largest, rising from $1,253 in 1985 to $2,357 in
1990.  Insurance rose from $503 to $675; license and registration,
from $115 to $165; and finance charges from $570 to $680.

In applying these costs to the real world, it's important to
remember that they are costs *for new vehicles.* Only 31% of new
cars sold are bought by households with incomes under $35,000
(1990), even though such households make up 57.9% of the U.S.
population.  The cost calculations also assume households dispose
of the new car after 6 years / 60,000 miles, even though the
*average* age of cars in use in 1990 was 7.8 years.  Over 20% of
cars in use were 12 or more years old.

For the MVMA, these assumptions make sense -- after all,
manufacturers care mostly about the sales and costs of new cars.  In
computing the actual cost of commuting by car, however, the MVMA
assumptions are questionable.  Depreciation is heavily weighted
towards the first few years of a car's life.  Extending the holding
period from 6 years to 8 reduces the cost per mile significantly
for new cars, but an even more substantial reduction in
depreciation expense is achieved by purchasing used cars.  A quick
look in your local classifieds will show that new car buyers take
the heaviest hit in the first hundred yards off the dealer's lot.

Thanks to their lower purchase price, used cars also have lower
finance costs, registration fees, and insurance.  For many older
cars, insurance costs drop more when owners opt out of
comprehensive coverage.  Finance cost is zero if the car
is cheap enough to pay cash instead of borrowing.

Older cars do have a disadvantage in fuel economy, as shown by the
lower fuel economy of vehicles driven by poor families.  The
sharpest drop is found in cars from before the fuel crises of the
1970s.  Of cars in use in 1988, those from 1976 or earlier achieved
an average of 12.3 mpg, vs. 22.1 mpg for 1988-9 model years.  Cars
from 1981-2, however, were nearly as efficient as those from
1988-9, averaging 20.7 mpg.  At a gas cost of $1.10 per gallon,
this equates to 8.9 cents per mile for 1976 and older, 5.3 cents
per mile for 1981-2, and 5.0 cents for 1988-9.  Thus, while the
buyer of a used car would probably get poorer fuel economy, this is
an insignificant 0.3 cents of the purported cost per mile.

The real cost of commuting in a used car is likely to be much lower
than the MVMA's new-car cost estimate.  Basing transit plans on the
MVMA estimate is therefore inappropriate unless the transit in
question is aimed primarily at upper-income commuters driving cars
they purchased new and which they intend to replace at 6 years /
60,000 miles.

At an anecdotal level, I maintain a spreadsheet covering all the
costs I incur in using and maintaining my own car, a 1965 Ford
Country Sedan.  The costs include a complete engine rebuild, tires,
washing, fluids, belts, paint, a replacement gas tank and fuel
sender, tuneups, stereo, lights, weatherstripping, brake shoes,
etc.  Also, since I have no way to reliably estimate the car's
life, I wrote off its entire purchase price the day I bought it
used.  Despite including all these costs, and despite a piggish 12
mpg average fuel economy (down from 13 mpg because of the
introduction of oxygenated fuels), my cost per mile is under 14
cents.  If the MVMA estimate of variable costs, 8.4 cents per mile
in 1990, is correct, it will make economic sense to replace my car
with a new one if the total fixed costs of a new car drop below 5.6
cents per mile, or $5,600 fixed costs for a car with a life span of
100,000 miles.  If you can sell me a new car for $5,600 with operating
costs under 8.4 cents per mile, you're in the wrong line of work.

My commute is about 15 miles round trip, under 4,000 miles per
year.  If I commuted by car, my current car would cost me about
$560.  An MVMA car would cost me over $1,600.  For a mass-transit
system to be economically attractive, it would have to cost me no
more than $46 per month, plus the value of whatever time it added
to my commute.  A transit plan relying on the MVMA estimate would
claim a breakeven cost of $133 per month, and transit advocates
would rail against my irrationality if I declined to patronise a
system costing me "only" $100 per month, about twice my cost of
commuting by car.

The bicycle I actually commute on cost under $800 new, including
all commuting accessories.  It could easily last a year with no
maintenance besides oiling the chain and patching a flat every few
months.  Treating it as a disposable good, then, it would cost me
half as much as an MVMA car, and only a few hundered dollars more
than my 1965 Ford.  Based on my past experience, however, I'd
expect a life span of more than 5 years with significant
maintenance, making it much less expensive than my used car.

Despite the very low cost of bicycle commuting, I do not expect
everyone else to take it up.  Were I not the type of person who
enjoys it, $150 would not be enough to make me ride in the dark,
blowing rain and snow of November, December, and January.  If I
were a consultant on call to various locations, the added travel
time would certainly outweigh the savings.  If I lived or worked in
a high-crime area, the vulnerability of cycling would outweigh both
the health At the moment I'm recovering from two broken arms and a
broken wrist, so cycling is out of the question.

Transit is out of the question, too.  The nearest bus stop is a
mile from my house, and no bus routes come within two miles of my
office.  In any case, the savings would not amount to much, since
at $2.00 per day the cost of 23 commuting days in December is $46,
just breakeven compared to driving.

So while I strongly encourage anyone considering cycling to work,
and happily help those whom I can, I do not denounce motorists as
irrational, greedy, or offensive.  They are my friends and
neighbors, after all, and the value of community far exceeds even
the cost of an MVMA car.

--
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