NetNews Usenet Archive 1992 #31/NN_1992_31.iso/spool/sci/environm/13960

Internet Message Format | 1992-12-29 | 3.3 KB

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From: [e-mail] (John McCarthy)
Subject: Re: Idiotic Japan Bashing
In-Reply-To: [e-mail]'s message of Tue, 29 Dec 92 05:31:23 GMT
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Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University
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Date: 29 Dec 92 00:14:43
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I'm still puzzled about what is supposed to be in a 100 year plan.  I can
think of one 200 year plan that succeeded.  In something like 1780,
Benjamin Franklin put some money in a trust that was to last 200 years
and then do some good for the city of Philadelphia.  200 years later,
there was $6 million in the trust.  However, that plan had no detail.

Let us consider Japan.

In 1868, Japan decided to model its empire on that of Napoleon III,
Emperor of France.

In 1870, Napoleon III lost the Franco-Prussian War and was deposed.
Japan decided to model itself on Prussia.

Late in the 19th century, Japan decided to go in for colonies in
imitation of the European colonial powers.  It took Formosa from
China, occupied Korea and won a war with Russia enabling it expansion
into Manchuria.  In pursuit of this plan it fought a small war
with the Soviet Union in 1939 which wasn't successful.  I would
suppose that Pearl Harbor was in further pursuit of this "plan".
What isn't clear is how a plan is to be distinguished from a habit,
in this case the habit of imperial expansion.

[Was the U.S. expansion to the West in pursuit of a plan?  I'll bet
you can find someone who predicted it.  However, the idea that the
U.S. might take California was not apparent to the British in 1830,
a mere 18 years before California entered the U.S.  My evidence for
this is a book published in 1830 by "an Englishman" worrying about
California.  He thought the Spanish were losing their grip and that
if Britain didn't do something, the Russians would get California.
The United States isn't mentioned once in the book.  By the way
Abraham Lincoln predicted in 1865 that the U.S. would have a population
of 250 million by 1965.  His estimate was slightly high.  Does
that mean he had a plan, or does it mean that he was rashly blurting
out the secret plan of the executive committee of the ruling class?]

Note that Japanese imperial expansion was pursued at substantial costs
in other goals.  The money they put into matching the U.S. Navy
could have gone into pursuing manufacturing excellence.

At the end of World War II, Japan lost all its Asian possessions,
and subsequently pursued a policy of industrial and commercial
excellence, which turned out to be successful.  The policy included
a continued political and military dependence on the U.S.  It will
take some fancy footwork to regard this as just a continuation of
the previous imperial plan.

Perhaps the Japanese plan consists of advancing the interests of the
country using whatever means seems appropriate at the time.  If that's
it, then every country has the same plan.

--
John McCarthy, Computer Science Department, Stanford, CA 94305
*
He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.