NetNews Usenet Archive 1992 #27/NN_1992_27.iso/spool/sci/econ/8722

Internet Message Format | 1992-11-17 | 4.0 KB

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From: [e-mail]
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: The global recession will last until 2000
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 16 Nov 92 14:39:29 GMT
References: <[e-mail]> <[e-mail]>
Organization: Edinboro University of Pennsylvania
Lines: 72

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] writes:
> In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] writes:
>>
>>     With the talk I've just seen surfacing here about this new
>> slow groth economy being "normal", I was wondering what everyones opinion is
>> on this:
>>
>>     My thinking is that the world will experience ho-hum growth until
>> 2000-2005.  There will be little that can be done to stop it.  The
>> reasoning for this is simple:  Everyone wants to export their way
>> out of the current world recession.
>>
>
>         First of all Mr. Duffy, when did you become a global economist?
> More imporantly, how did you figure out there was a global recession?
> Was that by heads or tails?
>
>         The fact is that we are not in a global recession.  The U.S.
> economy<contrary to popular belief> is growing around 3%. Japan, which
> hasn't experienced the kind of growth they did over the last ten years,
> is growing around 3% also.  China's economy is growing around 10% and
> recently agreed on importing more from the U.S..  Germany's stock ex-
> change<DAX> happens to strong due to the unification.  Europe overall
> will be moving toward growth due to the Treaty of Maastrich, which
> in case you didn't know plans to unify most of Europe with one common
> currency and free trade also.  I must not also leave out NAFTA, which
> is the North American Free Trade Agreement, which(in case you have
> been living in a cave for the last 6 months) will promote free trade
> and no tariffs between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. by 1996.
>
>     What I am saying Mr. Duffy is that the world is FAR from a global
> recession.  I am not trying to be argumentative- I just thought you
> should have done a little reading before you posted.
>
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Christopher J. Conrady


Ah, Mr. Conrady, still rooting for Bush, I see.  Well, my question is:

If the economy is doing so gosh darn good, why are people so scared?  I
see consumer confidence falling every month.  I see GM, IBM, and others
firing by the TENS OF THOUSANDS!  I see retail sales puttering along.  I
worked in a Xerox warehouse this summer with many a college student who
can't find any real employment.  I see the discouraged workforce rising
consistantly.  I see more and more vacant stores at my local mall.  I see
other local businesses closed, too.  I read about exports declining because
of Europe's recession/slow growth.

Alright, I realize the definition of "recession" is two consecutive quarters
of negative grtowth.  So we're not in a "recession", but it still looks
and feels like one!  Thats what did Bush in!  He said "Yeah, you might
be losing your job, but its no recession."  Now look who lost his job!

Reading a few figures does not tell the full story.  You must look at
a wider picture, yet still see the details.  Very hard, indeed.  China's
10% growth may be good, but their workers get paid something on the
order of <$1.00/hr.  WHAT ARE WE GOING TO SELL THEM????  Any cheap,
labor-intensive product they need, they make themselves.  What big-ticket
(TV, car, etc.) items can we sell them?

If you don't like my use of the word "recession", I'll rephrase:

"With the current crop of underlying economic problems, the world will
 experience slow-growth until 2000-2005."

Shawn Duffy
Edinboro University of PA

'80's: trippled the national debt, went from making steel and cars to
       making fast food, #1. export: jobs