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AI Apprentice by Bill Thompson and Bev Thompson "Creating Expert Systems from Examples" January 1987 AI EXPERT Figure 1. batch# part# power symptom Problem b 312 ac no power powersupply a 312 ac weak gear bad c 412 dc sparking powersupply d 412 ac no power wiring c 212 dc sparking powersupply c 412 ac weak wiring a 212 ac no power gear bad b 412 dc weak wiring b 212 ac weak gear bad Figure 2 - A decision tree produced from the data in Table 1. batch# part# power symptom Result b 412 ac weak gear bad a 212 dc weak powersupply d 212 dc sparking wiring d 412 ac no power powersupply Table 1 - A training set of data for a repair problem. If batch# is a then result is gear bad. If batch# is b and part# is 212 then result is gear bad. If batch# is b and part# is 312 then result is powersupply. If batch# is b and part# is 412 then result is wiring. If batch# is c and power is ac then result is wiring. If batch# is c and power is dc then result is powersupply. If batch# is d then result is wiring. batch# ? a: ---------------------------------------------gear bad b:part# ? 212: ---------------------------------------- gear bad 312: ---------------------------------------- powersupply 412: ---------------------------------------- wiring c:power?? ac: ----------------------------------------- wiring dc: ----------------------------------------- powersupply d: --------------------------------------------- wiring Table 2 - A new set of data collected for the repair problem. This data is used for validation of the solution. clinical descript distribution group Result fever upper resp. epidemic respiratory parainfluenza chills lower resp. local enteric adenovirus rash mid resp. children exanthems mumps swelling hospital latent rhinovirus malaise youngadults echo headache universal coxasackie cough varicella rubella Table 3 - Definitions of results and attributes for identifying viruses. level type of subject programming cover type basic Author software matter covered language intro/adv gen/spec gen/spec no/yes soft/hard no/yes 1. 1. 4. 3. soft 5. Jones 2. 5. 5. 4. soft 1. Smith 1. 1. 1. 3. soft 1. Fisher 1. 1. 1. 3. hard 5. Mitchell 1. 1. 1. 1. soft 1. Argyle 5. 1. 5. 5. hard 1. Chang Table 4 - An example set for selecting a textbook. This set was produced using the Flexigrid program. subject matter ? (gen/spec) < 2.50: programming covered ? (no/yes) < 2.00: ---------------------------------- Concepts >=2.00: cover ? hard: -------------------------- Today's soft: -------------------------- Information >=2.50: level ? (intro/adv) < 1.50: -------------------------------- Society >=1.50: level ? (intro/adv) < 3.50: ------------------------ Applications >=3.50: ------------------------ Data_structures upply of serotinous cones . prompt 10/acre adequate Are 10 trees per acre adequate to seed the area ? . trans 10/acre adequate 10 per acre is /not/ adequate . prompt burning planned Has a prescribed burning been planned ? . trans burning planned burning is /not/ planned . trans use seed tree You should /not/ use seed trees to seed the area . 15 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is yes and desirable seed is yes and serotinous cones is yes and 10/acre adequate is yes and burning planned is no then silviculture method is clearcut and branch 17 is yes . trans silvaculture method the best silviculture method to use . 16 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is yes and desirable seed is yes and serotinous cones is yes and 10/acre adequate is no then silviculture method is clearcut and branch 17 is yes . 17 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is yes and desirable seed is yes and serotinous cones is no and two harvests wanted is yes and two harvests possible is yes then silviculture method is shelterwood and branch 17 is yes . prompt two harvests wanted Do you want to do two commercial harvests on this area ? . trans two harvests wanted two commercial harvests are /not/ wanted . prompt two harvests possible Is it possible to get two harvests from this area ? . trans two harvests possible two harvests can /not/ be done on this area . 18 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is yes and desirable seed is yes and serotinous cones is no and two harvests wanted is yes and two harvests possible is no then silviculture method is clearcut and branch 17 is yes . 19 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is yes and desirable seed is yes and serotinous cones is no and two harvests wanted is no then silviculture method is clearcut and branch 17 is yes . 20 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is yes and desirable seed is no then silviculture method is clearcut and branch 17 is yes . 21 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is yes and pine suited is no then convert is yes and recommend is convert . trans convert you should /not/ convert the area to some more desirable kind of tree . 22 if branch 11 is yes and pine desired is no then convert is yes and recommend is convert . 26 if branch 17 is yes and adequate seedbed is yes then branch 18 is yes . prompt adequate seedbed Is there an adequate seedbed for planting ? . trans adequate seedbed there is /not/ an adequate seedbed for planting . 27 if branch 17 is yes and adequate seedbed is no then prepare site is yes and branch 18 is yes . trans prepare site the site should /not/ be prepared before planting . 28 if branch 18 is yes and silviculture method is shelterwood then use natural seeding is yes and recommend is use natural seeding . trans use natural seeding natural seeding techniques should /not/ be used . 29 if branch 18 is yes and silviculture method is clearcut and improved stock is yes then plant is yes and recommend is plant . prompt improved stock Is there improved planting stock available ? . trans improved stock there is /not/ improved stock available . trans plant since there is better stock available you can /not/ plant using that stock . 30 if branch 18 is yes and silviculture method is clearcut and improved stock is no and good cone supply is yes then scatter cones is yes and recommend is scatter cones . prompt good cone supply Is there a good supply of serotinous cones on the area ? . trans good cone supply there is /not/ a good cone supply . trans scatter cones you should /not/ scatter the supply of serotinous cones over the area . 31 if branch 18 is yes and silviculture method is clearcut and improved stock is no and good cone supply is no then direct seed is yes and recommend is direct seed . trans direct seed Since the cone supply is inadequate, you should /not/ directly seed the area . ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The following comments are not a part of the knowledge base. If you try to run the knowledge base this part of the file should be removed Abbreviated KEY 1. stocking good is yes ............................. 2 1. stocking good is no ............................. 10 2. avg < 5 is yes ................................ 3 2. avg < 5 is no ................................. 4 3. 2000 + per acre is yes ..........WEED OR CLEAN.... 8 3. 2000 + per acre is no ............................ 8 4. age is mature ................................. 11 4. age is immature ............................... 5 5. site index > 60 is yes ........................... 6 5. site index > 60 is no ............................ 9 6. product size is large ......................... 7 6. product size is small ......................... 9 7. 120 + basal area is yes .........THIN............. 9 7. 120 + basal area is no ........................... 9 8. severe competition is yes ....RELEASE.......... 9 8. severe competition is no ...................... 9 9. high risk is yes ................................. CONTROL IF FEASIBLE 9. high risk is no .................................. WAIT 10. other resources is yes ....................... MAINTAIN 10. other resources is no ........................ 11 11. pine suitable is yes ............................. 12 11. pine suitable is no .............................. CONVERT 12. desirable seed is yes ........................ 13 12. desirable seed is no ........USE CLEARCUT..... 17 13. serotinous cones is yes .......................... 14 13. serotinous cones is no ........................... 16 14. 10/acre adequate is yes ...................... 15 14. 10/acre adequate is no ......USE CLEARCUT..... 17 15. burning planned is yes ........................... USE SEED TREE 15. burning planned is no ...........USE CLEARCUT..... 17 16. two harvests wanted is yes ..USE SHELTERWOOD.. 17 16. two harvests wanted is no ...USE CLEARCUT..... 17 17. adequate seedbeds is yes ......................... 18 17. adequate seedbeds is no .........PREPARE SITE..... 18 18. silviculture method is shelterwood ........... USE NATURAL SEEDING 18. silviculture method is clearcut .............. 19 19. improved stock is yes ............................ PLANT 19. improved stock is no ............................. 20 20. good cone supply is yes ...................... SCATTER CONES 20. good cone supply is no ....................... DIRECT SEED The purpose of this exercise is to show how a knowledge base can be designed to directly follow a key. There are several places where the KB could have been made more efficient, but this would have meant departing from the order of the key. You might find it an interesting exercise to explore other ways this same information could have been represented in the KB. The key appears in the Managers Handbood for Jack Pine in the North Central States. The Handbook was produced by the North Central Forest Experiment Station of the Forest Service of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Our intention in writing this knowledge base is to show the structure of a knowledge base written for a backward chaining inference engine directly from an existing document. If this KB were to be actually used, it would need to have clearer questions and more explanations to the user. These explanations are provided in the handbook and could be easily incorporated into the knowledge base. The knowledge base will run on the expert system shell MicroExpert which is an example of a backward chaining inference engine. MicroExpert is available from McGraw-Hill for $49.95 and can be ordered by calling 1-800- 628-0004 or, in NY, 212-512-2999 . The knowledge base is described in the column AI Apprentice which appears in the November issue of AI Expert magazine. The design details of the inference engine which runs the KB is described in the article "Inside an Expert System" in the April 1985 isuue of BYTE magazine. MicroExpert, AI Apprentice and "Inside an Expert System" are all written by Bev and Bill Thompson . We're always happy to hear about your thoughts and comments, good or bad on any of our work. Contact us at the address below, on Compuserve or BIX. Our Compuserve id is 76703,4324 and we can be reached by Easyplex or in the AI Expert Forum. Our BIX id is bbt and we may be contacted via BIXmail or by leaving comments in the MicroExpert conference. Bill and Bev Thompson R.D. 2 Box 430 Nassau, N.Y. 12123 TREES.PRO PROLOG program /* This PDPROLOG program implements a knowledge base based upon the following key: To run the program type "go." Caution - This program can be very S L O W. Abbreviated KEY 1. stocking good is yes ............................. 2 1. stocking good is no ............................. 10 2. avg < 5 is yes ................................ 3 2. avg < 5 is no ................................. 4 3. 2000 + per acre is yes ..........WEED OR CLEAN.... 8 3. 2000 + per acre is no ............................ 8 4. age is mature ................................. 11 4. age is immature ............................... 5 5. site index > 60 is yes ........................... 6 5. site index > 60 is no ............................ 9 6. product size is large ......................... 7 6. product size is small ......................... 9 7. 120 + basal area is yes .........THIN............. 9 7. 120 + basal area is no ........................... 9 8. severe competition is yes ....RELEASE.......... 9 8. severe competition is no ...................... 9 9. high risk is yes ................................. CONTROL IF FEASIBLE 9. high risk is no .................................. WAIT 10. other resources is yes ....................... MAINTAIN 10. other resources is no ........................ 11 11. pine suitable is yes ............................. 12 11. pine suitable is no .............................. CONVERT 12. desirable seed is yes ........................ 13 12. desirable seed is no ........USE CLEARCUT..... 17 13. serotinous cones is yes .......................... 14 13. serotinous cones is no ........................... 16 14. 10/acre adequate is yes ...................... 15 14. 10/acre adequate is no ......USE CLEARCUT..... 17 15. burning planned is yes ........................... USE SEED TREE 15. burning planned is no ...........USE CLEARCUT..... 17 16. two harvests wanted is yes ..USE SHELTERWOOD.. 17 16. two harvests wanted is no ...USE CLEARCUT..... 17 17. adequate seedbeds is yes ......................... 18 17. adequate seedbeds is no .........PREPARE SITE..... 18 18. silviculture method is shelterwood ........... USE NATURAL SEEDING 18. silviculture method is clearcut .............. 19 19. improved stock is yes ............................ PLANT 19. improved stock is no ............................. 20 20. good cone supply is yes ...................... SCATTER CONES 20. good cone supply is no ....................... DIRECT SEED The purpose of this exercise is to show how an expert system can be designed to directly follow a key. There are several places where the program could have been made more efficient, but this would have meant departing from the order of the key. You might find it an interesting exercise to explore other ways this same information could have been represented in the program. The key appears in the Managers Handbood for Jack Pine in the North Central States. The Handbook was produced by the North Central Forest Experiment Station of the Forest Service of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Our intention in writing this knowledge base is to show the structure of a knowledge base written for a backward chaining inference engine directly from an existing document. If this KB were to be actually used, it would need to have clearer questions and more explanations to the user. These explanations are provided in the handbook and could be easily incorporated into the knowledge base. This program is similar to the KB for the expert system shell MicroExpert which is an example of a backward chaining inference engine. MicroExpert is available from McGraw-Hill for $49.95 and can be ordered by calling 1-800-628-0004 or, in NY, 212-512-2999 . The knowledge base is described in the AI Apprentice column which appears in the November issue of AI Expert magazine. The design details of the inference engine which runs the KB is described in the article "Inside an Expert System" in the April 1985 isuue of BYTE magazine. MicroExpert, AI Apprentice and "Inside an Expert System" are all written by Bev and Bill Thompson . We're always happy to hear about your thoughts and comments, good or bad on any of our work. Contact us at the address below, on Compuserve or BIX. Our Compuserve id is 76703,4324 and we can be reached by Easyplex or in the AI Expert Forum. Our BIX id is bbt and we may be contacted via BIXmail or by leaving comments in the MicroExpert conference. Bill and Bev Thompson R.D. 2 Box 430 Nassau, N.Y. 12123 */ /* Control - In MicroExpert terms, the goal of the consultation is recommendation */ go :- clear_kb, give_advice. give_advice :- recommendation(X), fail. give_advice :- print_advice. /* The rules - These are implemented this way to mimic the MicroExpert rule set. Looking at them side by side should show the similarities. */ fact(branch8,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',yes), fact('2000+ per acre',yes), recommend('The stand of jack pine must be weeded and cleaned.'). fact(branch8,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',yes), fact('2000+ per acre',no). fact(branch9,no) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',no), fact(age,mature), assertz(fact(branch11,yes)). fact(branch11,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',no), fact(age,mature), assertz(fact(branch9,no)). fact(branch9,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',no), fact(age,immature), fact('site index > 60',yes), fact('product size',large), fact('120+ basal area',yes), recommend('It is important to thin the area'). fact(branch9,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',no), fact(age,immature), fact('site index > 60',yes), fact('product size',large), fact('120+ basal area',no). fact(branch9,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',no), fact(age,immature), fact('site index > 60',yes), fact('product size',large). fact(branch9,yes) :- fact('stocking good',yes), fact('avg < 5',no), fact(age,immature), fact('site index > 60',yes). recommendation(maintain) :- fact('stocking good',no), fact('other resources',yes), recommend('You should maintain the stand in its present condition'). fact(branch11,yes) :- fact('stocking good',no), fact('other resources',no). fact(branch9,yes) :- fact(branch8,yes), fact('severe competition',yes), recommend('Competing trees should be eliminated.'). fact(branch9,yes) :- fact(branch8,yes), fact('severe competition',no). recommendation(control) :- fact(branch9,yes), fact('high risk',yes), recommend('The current area should be controlled, if at all feasible.'). recommendation(wait) :- fact(branch9,yes), fact('high risk',no), recommend('You should wait before doing anything else to this stand.'). recommendation('use seed tree') :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',yes), fact('serotinous cones',yes), fact('10/acres adequate',yes), fact('burning planned',yes), recommend('You should use seed trees to seed the area.'). fact(branch17,yes) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',yes), fact('serotinous cones',yes), fact('10/acres adequate',yes), fact('burning planned',no), add_fact(silvaculture,clearcut), recommend('The best silvaculture method to use is clearcut.'). fact(branch17,yes) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',yes), fact('serotinous cones',yes), fact('10/acres adequate',no), add_fact(silvaculture,clearcut), recommend('The best silvaculture method to use is clearcut.'). fact(branch17,yes) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',yes), fact('serotinous cones',no), fact('two harvests wanted',yes), fact('two harvests possible',yes), add_fact(silvaculture,shelterwood), recommend('The best silvaculture method to use is the shlterwood method.'). fact(branch17,yes) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',yes), fact('serotinous cones',no), fact('two harvests wanted',yes), fact('two harvests possible',no), add_fact(silvaculture,clearcut), recommend('The best silvaculture method to use is clearcut.'). fact(branch17,yes) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',yes), fact('serotinous cones',no), fact('two harvests wanted',no), add_fact(silvaculture,clearcut), recommend('The best silvaculture method to use is clearcut.'). fact(branch17,yes) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',yes), fact('desirable seed',no), add_fact(silvaculture,clearcut), recommend('The best silvaculture method to use is clearcut.'). recommendation(convert) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',yes), fact('pine suited',no), recommend('You should convert the area to some more desirable kind of tree.'). recommendation(convert) :- fact(branch11,yes), fact('pine desired',no), recommend('You should convert the area to some more desirable kind of tree.'). fact(branch18,yes) :- fact(branch17,yes), fact('adequate seedbed',yes). fact(branch18,yes) :- fact(branch17,yes), fact('adequate seedbed',no), recommend('The site should be prepared before planting.'). recommendation('natural seeding') :- fact(branch18,yes), fact(silvaculture,shelterwood), recommend('The natural seeding technique should be used.'). recommendation(plant) :- fact(branch18,yes), fact(silvaculture,clearcut), fact('improved stock',yes), recommend('Since there is better stock available, you can plant using that stock.'). recommendation('scatter cones') :- fact(branch18,yes), fact(silvaculture,clearcut), fact('improved stock',no), fact('good cone supply',yes), recommend('You should scatter the serotinous cones over the area.'). recommendation('direct seed') :- fact(branch18,yes), fact(silvaculture,clearcut), fact('improved stock',no), fact('good cone supply',no), recommend('You should directly seed the area.'). /* These routines add new facts to the internal knowledge base - kb */ fact(X,Y) :- kb(X,Y),! . fact(X,Y) :- not(kb(X,Anything)), question(X,Answer), assertz(kb(X,Answer)), Y = Answer. add_fact(X,Y) :- kb(X,Y),!. add_fact(X,Y) :- assertz(kb(X,Y)). recommend(X) :- add_fact(advice,X). /* Questions to ask the user */ question('stocking good',Ans) :- print('Is the stocking of the jack pine stand currently'),nl, print('at least minimum ? '),nl,nl, print('If you are unsure of how to determine stocking,'),nl, print('see page 4 in the Managers Handbook for Jack Pine'), nl, ask('',Ans,[ yes , no ]). question('avg < 5',Ans) :- ask('Is the average diameter of the trees less than 5 inches ?', Ans,[yes,no]). question('2000+ per acre',Ans) :- ask('Are there 2000 or more trees per acre ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question(age,Ans) :- ask('Is the age of the stand mature or immature ?', Ans,[mature,immature]). question('site index > 60',Ans) :- ask('Is the site index greater than 60 ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('product size',Ans) :- ask('Do you want to manage the timber for large or small products ?', Ans,[large,small]). question('120+ basal area',Ans) :- ask('Is the basal area per acre at least 120 square feet ?', Ans,[yes,no]). question('other resources',Ans) :- ask('Do you want to maintain this condition to support other resources?', Ans,[yes,no]). question('severe competition',Ans) :- ask('Is there severe overstory competition ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('high risk',Ans) :- ask('Is there a high risk of loss or injury ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('pine desired',Ans) :- ask('Do you want to keep jack pine in this area ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('pine suited',Ans) :- ask('Is jack pine well suited to this site ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('desirable seed',Ans) :- ask('Is there a desirable jack pine seed source on the area ?', Ans,[yes,no]). question('serotinous cones',Ans) :- ask('Do the trees on the site have serotinous cones ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('10/acres adequate',Ans) :- ask('Are 10 trees per acre adequate to seed the area ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('burning planned',Ans) :- ask('Has a prescribed burning been planned ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('two harvests wanted',Ans) :- ask('Do you want two commercial harvests on this area ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('two harvests possible',Ans) :- ask('Is it possible to get two harvests from this area ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('adequate seedbed',Ans) :- ask('Is there an adequate seedbed for planting ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('improved stock',Ans) :- ask('Is there an improved planting stock available ?',Ans,[yes,no]). question('good cone supply',Ans) :- ask('Is there a good supply of serotinous cones in the area ?', Ans,[yes,no]). /* Utility Routines - to be useful, we should add some routines to allow the user to ask "How" and "Why" */ display_kb :- kb(X,Y), print(X,' is ',Y), nl, fail. display_kb. print_advice :- nl,nl, print('Based upon your responses, the following is recommended :'),nl,nl, show_advice. show_advice :- kb(advice,X), print(X), nl, fail. show_advice :- nl,print('To see the complete set of derived facts,'), print('type "display_kb."'). clear_kb :- retract(kb(_,_)), fail . clear_kb. member(X,[X|_]). member(X,[_|Y]) :- member(X,Y). ask(Ques,Ans,LegalResponses) :- nl,print(Ques,' '), read(Ans), member(Ans,LegalResponses),!. ask(Ques,Ans,LegalResponses) :- nl,nl,nl, print('Please respond with : ',LegalResponses),nl,nl, ask(Ques,Ans,LegalResponses). Listings and Figures printed in AI EXPERT magazine 1. Jack pine stand with minimum or higher stocking .................. 2 1. Jack pine stand with less than minimum stocking .................. 10 2. Average tree diameter less than 5 inches ..................... 3 2. Average tree diameter 5 inches or more ....................... 4 3. 2,000 or more trees per acre ..................WEED OR CLEAN ..... 8 3. Less than 2,000 trees per acre ................................... 8 4. Stand is mature .............................................. 11 4. Stand is not mature .......................................... 5 Figure 1 - Key for forest management taken from USDA Forest Service Handbook |-- yes ===> weed or clean | and do # 8 |-- yes --- 2000+ per acre-| | |-- no ===> do # 8 |-- yes -- diameter-| | < 5 in. | |-- mature ===> do # 11 minimum | |-- no -- age-| stocking-| |-- young ===> do # 5 | |