echo on
clc
%	This case study is based on the same "hairdyer" data as study # 1.
%	The process consists of air being fanned through a tube. The air
%	is heated at the inlet of the tube, and the input is the voltage
%	applied to the heater. The output is the temperature at the outlet
%	of the tube.

%	First, load the data:

load dryer2

%	Form a data set for estimation of the first half, and a reference
%	set for validation purposes of the second half:

ze = [y2(1:500) u2(1:500)];
zr = [y2(501:1000) u2(501:1000)];

%	Detrend each of the sets:

ze = dtrend(ze); zr = dtrend(zr);

%	Take a look at the data:

pause, idplot(ze,200:350), pause    % Press any key to continue
clc
%	We shall work with models of the following kind:

% y(t) + a1*y(t-1) + ... + ana*y(t-na) = b1*u(t-nk) + ... + bnb*u(t-nb-nk+1)

%	First we try and determine the time delay (nk). We then
%	select a second order model (na=nb=2), and try out every time delay
%	between 1 and 10. The loss function for the different models
%	are computed using the reference data set:

V = arxstruc(ze,zr,struc(2,2,1:10));

%	We now select that delay that gives the best fit for the
%	reference set:

[nn,Vm] = selstruc(V,0);

%	The chosen structure was
nn
pause % Press any key to continue.
clc
%	We can also check how the fit depends on the delay. The logarithms
%	of a quadratic loss function are given as the first row, while
%	the indexes na, nb and nk are given as a column below the correspon-
%	ding loss function. 

pause % Press any key to continue.
clc
Vm
%	The choice of three delays is thus rather clear. Now test the
%	orders. We check the fit for all 25 combinations of up to 5
%	b-parameters and up to 5 a-parameters, all with delay 3:

V = arxstruc(ze,zr,struc(1:5,1:5,3));

pause % Press any key to continue.
clc
%	The best fit for the reference data set is obtained for

nn = selstruc(V,0)

pause % Press any key to continue.
clc
%	It may be advisable to check yourself how much the fit is
%	improved for the higher order models. The following plot
%	shows the fit as a function of the number of parameters used.
%	(Note that several different model structures use the same
%	number of parameters.) You will then be asked to enter the
%	number of parameters you think gives a sufficiently good fit.
%	The routine then selects that structure with this many parameters
%	that gives the best fit. 

pause, nns = selstruc(V)      % Press a key to continue.

%	The best fit is thus obtained for nn = [4 4 3], while we
%	see that the improved fit compared to nn = [2 2 3] is rather
%	marginal. 

pause % Press any key to continue.
clc
%	Let's compute the fourth order model:

th4 = arx(ze,[4 4 3]);

%	We now check the pole-zero configuration for the fourth order
%	model. We also include confidence regions for the poles and zeros
%	corresponding to 3 standard deviations. 

pause, zpplot(th2zp(th4),3), pause      % Press any key to for plot.
clc
%	It is thus quite clear that the two complex conjugated pole-zero
%	pairs are likely to cancel, so that a second order model would be
%	adequate. We thus compute

th2 = arx(ze,[2 2 3]);

%	We can test how well this model is capable of reproducing the
%	reference data set. To compare the simulated output from the
%	model with the actual output (plotting the mid 200 data points)
%	we invoke (press key for plot)

pause,compare(zr,th2,150:350);pause

clc
%	We may also check the residuals ("leftovers") of this model,
%	i.e., what is left unexplained by the model.

pause % Press any key to continue.

e = resid(ze,th2); pause

plot(e), title('The residuals'),pause
clc
%	We see that the residual are quite small compared to the signal
%	level of the output, that they are reasonably (although not
%	perfectly) well uncorrelated with the input and between themselves.
%	We can thus be (provisionally) satisfied with the model th2.
 
pause % Press any key to return to main menu.
echo off
set(gcf,'NextPlot','replace');

