Day 035 - 12 Oct 94 - Page 28


     
     1        A.  The Surgeon General's Report does use words to the
     2        effect that there are these links and the links, the
     3        association may be causal and does not say that beyond a
     4        shadow of a doubt it is causal.
     5
     6   Q.   He does not even say "it probably is", does he?
     7        A.  Perhaps there are a couple of things that might be
     8        worth bringing in here.  The first is -----
     9
    10   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  Just pause a moment.  By all means tell us
    11        of those couple of things, but does he use words which
    12        amount to "probably" rather than "may"?
    13        A.  Allow me a moment to read the section of the report.
    14
    15   Q.   The most sensible way to put it might be, in the part
    16        which Mr. Rampton has read through with you so far is
    17        there anything which you think amounts to "probably"
    18        rather than "may"?
    19        A.  OK, I am sorry.  I had switched back to an earlier
    20        portion where he uses the word "causal" in somewhat
    21        stronger language.  Which page are we referring to?
    22
    23   Q.   Page 224 over to the top of page 225.  Look at that
    24        first.  You need not read on after where Mr. Rampton has
    25        got to, because what I am going to suggest is, as he reads
    26        on, as he will do in due course, if he comes across a
    27        phrase which you think amounts to "probably", then I am
    28        sure he will not mind you stopping him so that you can
    29        make that point.
    30        A.  All right.  Obviously, words are subject to
    31        interpretation.  But perhaps the first sentence in the
    32        last full paragraph on page 224 is as close as the Surgeon
    33        General seems to be getting in this passage to talking
    34        about probabilities as opposed to simply possibilities
    35        where he uses the words, "Studies of carcinogen-induced
    36        tumorigenesis in experimental animals and international
    37        epidemiologic comparisons have provided substantial but
    38        not conclusive evidence that dietary fat increases the
    39        risk" and talks about cancers of the breast, colon and
    40        others.
    41
    42        So, if one is trying to differentiate between a
    43        possibility, a probability and a certainty, he is not
    44        speaking of a certainty but he, in my reading, is talking
    45        about much more than simply a possibility.
    46
    47   Q.   Is it fair to say that is when he is considering two
    48        methods of investigation and then he goes on to consider
    49        other methods of investigation?
    50        A.  I am not sure what follows, but, yes. 
    51 
    52   MR. RAMPTON:  Yes.  You see, it does, does it not, Dr. Barnard, 
    53        because if that were the whole of the Surgeon General's
    54        opinion on this matter, we would not get what we get at
    55        the end of that paragraph, which is this:  "Despite such
    56        complications, the animal and international epidemiologic
    57        data suggest that a decrease in fat consumption by the
    58        general public etc. might reduce the risk of certain
    59        cancers"; he would say, would he not, "probably will and
    60        you should set about doing it now for the good of your

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