Day 253 - 21 May 96 - Page 25


     
     1        what has been happening in the last 10, 15 years, they are
     2        likely to meet their targets on all of the conditions that
     3        were considered in the document with one exception, and
     4        that is overweight and obesity which continues to rise.
     5
     6   Q.   But without it, it would appear from these figures at
     7        least, a corresponding increase in our death from heart
     8        disease?
     9        A.  Yes, in the sense that it does without any intervention
    10        from the Government.  It is something that is going to
    11        happen in any case.
    12
    13   Q.   If you look over the page, you can see comparable figures
    14        for stroke, figures 2.5c and 2.5d?
    15        A.  Yes.
    16
    17   Q.   Those are for the under 65s.  On the right-hand of each of
    18        those pages, 43 and 45, one sees the figures for males and
    19        females of all ages?
    20        A.  Yes.
    21
    22   Q.   Both, like the figures for the under 65s, trending
    23        downwards?
    24        A.  Yes.  There is quite a dramatic decline.
    25
    26   Q.   My Lord, the other more detailed figures, I do not need to
    27        refer to them now, are on pages 179 following.  That is
    28        Appendix B.
    29
    30   MR. JUSTICE BELL: Premature death was taken somewhere else to be
    31        under 65?
    32        A.  Yes.
    33
    34   Q.   Why was 65 picked on?
    35        A.  I think it is this figure that people associate in
    36        their minds, your Lordship, with retiring, and the notion
    37        that a man should die before he has actually completed his
    38        natural stint of working life seemed to be the factor that
    39        was determining it.
    40
    41   MR. RAMPTON:  It puzzled me too, I am glad his Lordship asked
    42        that question as I did not know why they had chosen that.
    43        What is the average life expectancy for a man in the United
    44        Kingdom at the moment; do you know?
    45        A.  I cannot tell you off the top of my head at the moment.
    46
    47   Q.   Do you think it would be greater than 65?
    48        A.  It is certainly.
    49
    50   MR. JUSTICE BELL: It is more than that? 
    51 
    52   MR. RAMPTON:  Yes. 
    53
    54   MR. JUSTICE BELL: That is why I asked.
    55        A.  I think the figure for having a first heart attack,
    56        I think the actual average value for men is 74.  Certainly
    57        when I ask students, they say 40 because, to them, that is
    58        a very advanced age but 74, one might think, is not an
    59        unreasonable age.
    60

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