Day 256 - 04 Jun 96 - Page 39
1 A. Yes, it is true.
2
3 Q. Can I ask you, because I have not fully understood it, what
4 is the basis for that assumption?
5 A. Two bases, one now in retrospect. First, on the
6 question of concern of the dietary composition, we had data
7 from the World Bank, back to 1950s, on some of the key
8 components of the diets that were consumed during all those
9 years, and there was considerable stability except for the
10 periods of 1959 to 1961 when there was a bit of a
11 starvation at the time; there was a great consistency
12 during that entire period.
13
14 The second point, as I say, we now have in retrospect, it
15 has to do with the mortality data of 1973 to 1975. We have
16 actually gone back again and done the mortality survey
17 again for the years of 1986 to 1988, and we now have just
18 the first glimpse of the comparison between 1973 and the
19 late 80s; and, again, there is great consistency in the
20 mortality rates. So, all we have to assume, really, is
21 that there was stability in these figures -- which,
22 incidentally, is a very reasonable assumption, particularly
23 in the case concerning diet, because it is hard to imagine
24 that they would have gone lower in their dietary fat intake
25 than what actually was measured in the early 80s. I mean,
26 that is a given -----
27
28 Q. Did you collect morbidity (sic) or incidence data?
29 A. No, we did not; but we have the second time around.
30
31 Q. Those data have not yet been analysed?
32 A. Yes, that is true.
33
34 Q. If you want to make a comparison with -- and this is
35 obvious, I know -- but if you want to make a comparison
36 with what one might call Western lifestyle, you either
37 compare mortality with mortality or incidence with
38 incidence, do you not?
39 A. Yes, that is true.
40
41 Q. You have not yet been able to do it for the latter
42 category; is that right?
43 A. Not for incidence, no.
44
45 Q. No.
46 A. Mortality figures are easier to come by, better to use.
47
48 Q. Mortality rate, to some extent, may it not, depend upon the
49 availability of adequate treatment?
50 A. Yes.
51
52 Q. How does the Peoples Republic of China compare in that
53 respect with the United States of America?
54 A. Surprisingly good. When we first got involved in using
55 the mortality data that they had collected in the 1970s,
56 that was of course a question in the uppermost of our
57 minds, and there was three bodies who went to China and had
58 a close look at the collection of these data and the
59 controls that they use, the percentage of the total cases
60 that were basically examined, at various levels of the
