Day 023 - 13 Sep 94 - Page 08


     
     1        been believed to be the case and actually much more
     2        complex.
     3
     4        We certainly do need obviously to carry out research, and
     5        the fact that some studies have indicated that they have
     6        been able to find a relationship obviously cannot be
     7        ignored.  But what I am saying is that, at this moment in
     8        time, we do not actually have the scientific evidence
     9        because the results of studies are so conflicting that
    10        there is not a body of evidence which overwhelmingly
    11        states there is a relationship as there was with cigarette
    12        smoking.  The evidence -- certainly the more modern
    13        evidence -- if anything, tends to be even more conflicting
    14        that the prospective studies which have been reported in
    15        the last three or four years do not suggest that there is
    16        a clear relationship between dietary fat and a number of
    17        cancers.
    18
    19   Q.   Right.  Are you talking about specific factors of the
    20        diet?
    21        A.  I am, yes.
    22
    23   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  Remember that when you are asking Dr. Arnott
    24        questions the main issues on the part of the case he is
    25        giving evidence about are what I make of the meaning of
    26        what is in the leaflet.  Mr. Rampton suggested that it
    27        meant (or the implication of it was) if you ate a
    28        McDonald's meal or meals there was a risk of getting
    29        cancer.  I have to make up my own mind what the leaflet
    30        actually means, whether it means that or not.  If it does
    31        mean that, whether that is wrong or not, and since the
    32        leaflet states whatever it does mean, that this is
    33        acceptable medical fact, whether it was accepted medical
    34        fact at the relevant time going back to 1989 or 1990, if
    35        you are proved to have published it then.  I am not saying
    36        there are not other issues, but at the moment they seem to
    37        be the main ones.
    38
    39   MS. STEEL:   I have just thought of one more question.  Do you
    40        know roughly what percentage of people who smoke actually
    41        get lung cancer?
    42        A.  Off the top of my head I cannot, but it is not a 100
    43        per cent.
    44
    45   Q.   Is it about 25 per cent?
    46        A.  Well, I think there are 30,000 deaths from lung cancer
    47        each year, and about a third of the population, adult
    48        population smokes.  So if we assume that there are 30
    49        million adult members of the population, there is about
    50        ten or twelve million people smoking and 30,000 people 
    51        will die in a year. 
    52 
    53   Q.   I am getting lost now.
    54
    55   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  Can I try and turn it another way?  Do you
    56        have any idea of the percentage of people who smoke with
    57        some regularity and at some stage get lung cancer?  Are
    58        there any such figures?
    59        A.  There are figures.  I do not know them offhand, I am
    60        afraid.  But we do know, for example, if people smoke 20

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