Day 011 - 12 Jul 94 - Page 71
1 apply to HCFCs. If you say that the emission of HCFC is
very largely corporate, therefore everyone who is
2 responsible for 1 per cent of that is contributing to the
whole, I understand you. It may be different with regard
3 to methane if a large part is being emitted by bogs which
have been there for centuries.
4
MR. MORRIS: We will not blame the bogs.
5
MR. JUSTICE BELL: You have to tell me which compartment I am
6 in.
7 MR. MORRIS: I think the point I am making is fairly clear.
I am asking Mr. Duxbury, but obviously that will come up
8 later in the case.
A. Can I have permission to quote from the World
9 Meteorological Organisation report? The following:
"Methane emissions depend upon animal populations as well
10 as the amount and type of food. It is difficult to
estimate the change in the source over the last century
11 accurately, because the significant increase in the number
of cattle and sheep has been partially offset by decreases
12 in the population of elephants and North American bison.
That means that Crutzen's estimate could be that the
13 magnitude of the source has increased in anywhere from 21
terograms of methane to 78 terograms depending on how you
14 care to do the estimation." This is section 1.3.3.4 of The
World Meteorological Organisation report. That, as far as
15 I can see, is the best estimate at the moment of the
contribution of domestically bred animals which produce
16 methane to the amount of methane coming out. In other
words, it is rather uncertain.
17
So to take a small amount of that, which is in fact
18 associated with possibly quite a large cattle user, and
try to decide how much that contributes to the world
19 methane is, I think, rather difficult.
20 Q. Yes, I agree with you.
21 MR. JUSTICE BELL: I am just trying to point out that you may
be on stronger ground, I am not concluding, with regard to
22 something like CFC than you are with regard to methane.
So you do not want to bundle them all up together.
23
MR. MORRIS: My present view is that the numbers game is a bit,
24 you know, of a trick, but I am not blaming Mr. Duxbury for
that. Finally, as a scientist are you aware that public
25 interest in an issue often sets the agenda for what
scientists make their issues of concern?
26 A. Yes.
27 Q. So, do you feel it was part of the deep concerns of the
scientific community about the ozone layer, do you feel
28 that was put high up on the agenda because of concern of
the public about that issue?
29 A. I think if you look at the history of this, I would
argue that it was put high up on the concern because
30 people discovered something in measurements which they did
not understand and which led them to think about something
