Day 023 - 13 Sep 94 - Page 08
1 been believed to be the case and actually much more
2 complex.
3
4 We certainly do need obviously to carry out research, and
5 the fact that some studies have indicated that they have
6 been able to find a relationship obviously cannot be
7 ignored. But what I am saying is that, at this moment in
8 time, we do not actually have the scientific evidence
9 because the results of studies are so conflicting that
10 there is not a body of evidence which overwhelmingly
11 states there is a relationship as there was with cigarette
12 smoking. The evidence -- certainly the more modern
13 evidence -- if anything, tends to be even more conflicting
14 that the prospective studies which have been reported in
15 the last three or four years do not suggest that there is
16 a clear relationship between dietary fat and a number of
17 cancers.
18
19 Q. Right. Are you talking about specific factors of the
20 diet?
21 A. I am, yes.
22
23 MR. JUSTICE BELL: Remember that when you are asking Dr. Arnott
24 questions the main issues on the part of the case he is
25 giving evidence about are what I make of the meaning of
26 what is in the leaflet. Mr. Rampton suggested that it
27 meant (or the implication of it was) if you ate a
28 McDonald's meal or meals there was a risk of getting
29 cancer. I have to make up my own mind what the leaflet
30 actually means, whether it means that or not. If it does
31 mean that, whether that is wrong or not, and since the
32 leaflet states whatever it does mean, that this is
33 acceptable medical fact, whether it was accepted medical
34 fact at the relevant time going back to 1989 or 1990, if
35 you are proved to have published it then. I am not saying
36 there are not other issues, but at the moment they seem to
37 be the main ones.
38
39 MS. STEEL: I have just thought of one more question. Do you
40 know roughly what percentage of people who smoke actually
41 get lung cancer?
42 A. Off the top of my head I cannot, but it is not a 100
43 per cent.
44
45 Q. Is it about 25 per cent?
46 A. Well, I think there are 30,000 deaths from lung cancer
47 each year, and about a third of the population, adult
48 population smokes. So if we assume that there are 30
49 million adult members of the population, there is about
50 ten or twelve million people smoking and 30,000 people
51 will die in a year.
52
53 Q. I am getting lost now.
54
55 MR. JUSTICE BELL: Can I try and turn it another way? Do you
56 have any idea of the percentage of people who smoke with
57 some regularity and at some stage get lung cancer? Are
58 there any such figures?
59 A. There are figures. I do not know them offhand, I am
60 afraid. But we do know, for example, if people smoke 20
