Day 239 - 23 Apr 96 - Page 38


     
     1        stands quite that far.
     2
     3   Q.   The bottom of what used to be called Pheonix Arabia is, I
     4        assure you, within the northern Tropic of Cancer.  Trees
     5        growing there would not be described as tropical
     6        rainforest, would they?
     7        A.  It depends on the formation of forest.  The Sahara is
     8        not all great sand dunes and there are bits of Sahelian
     9        region which would not be far from one's ideal of a
    10        tropical rainforest.  It depends where you are, but
    11        certainly not the little clumps of palms around the sort of
    12        B-movie oasis, no.
    13
    14   Q.   One last thing, Mr. Monbiot, and then I have finished.  You
    15        saw that area, just by way of example, to the northeast of
    16        Sinop which as I told you -- everybody can measure it -- is
    17        roughly 150 kilometers long and 50 kilometres broad.  It
    18        looks a bit like a kidney bean.  We do not know when it was
    19        cut down, if it ever was.  We know it was agricultural
    20        land, at any rate, when this map was made.  How long would
    21        it take, if that had once been rainforest, whatever
    22        definition you choose to use, how long would it take for an
    23        area of that size to regenerate?
    24        A.   It depends on a very large number of factors.  I will
    25        suggest what some of those factors are.  The first would be
    26        whether the land is recleared and maintained as a ranch or
    27        pasture, i.e. whether burning and pesticides are used.  The
    28        second would depend on what reserves of forest there were
    29        surrounding it and so whether or not they could easily set
    30        seed and reinvade.  A third factor would be the vectors of
    31        seed i.e. whether there were certain species of bird and
    32        mammals which could carry seed into it.   Again, like so
    33        many of these issues, there is huge amount of variability.
    34        But a general rule you can say, if you leave it, if it was
    35        a forest area it is likely to revert to one relatively
    36        quickly.  If you keep knocking back the vegetation, it will
    37        take a very long time.
    38
    39   Q.   Can you just look at it?  Can you see it has got a river
    40        running around it and again I am afraid I am going to
    41        pronounce the R.  It has Rio Manissaua-Micu running through
    42        it?
    43        A. I see it.
    44
    45   Q.   The top of the river anyway.  Just suppose that it is
    46        surrounded by trees of one kind or another and suppose, and
    47        again we have absolutely no idea, but suppose it had once
    48        been trees itself and they were cut down, let us say in
    49        1965 and suppose, I do not know this is so, but just
    50        suppose then you had cattle on it for 15 years.  It had to 
    51        be a bit longer to 1983, call it 20 years if you like and 
    52        then you removed the cattle.  You let it lie fallow.   You 
    53        did not do anything else to it.  You kept it the same size.
    54          How long would it take for it to regenerate?
    55        A.   I am afraid in all honesty I cannot give you a
    56        reasonable figure, for the simple reason that there are so
    57        many variables which I have mentioned and it depends
    58        whether there is forest nearby which can seed it.  As I
    59        say, it depends what sort of processes they were using to
    60        maintain the forest open; vectors.  I mean, honestly, I

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