Day 269 - 25 Jun 96 - Page 12


     
     1        that it is only 35% contribution, you divide that by two
     2        obviously and you end up with 31,750, if you say that
     3        saturated fat only explains a third of the risk of heart
     4        disease, which I do not think is correct, but, I mean, it
     5        is useful to do that exercise as a safeguard.
     6
     7        The other factor that you could argue, and this is by no
     8        means meant to be, although one ends up with precise
     9        figures, it is not meant to be by any means precise, it is
    10        just a guide, because I understood your Lordship wanted
    11        some kind of a feel for the potential impact, that if you
    12        then say the contribution of the single McDonald's meal is
    13        not one in seven but one in fourteen, that is again sort of
    14        acting against the hypothesis to dilute it down.  You then
    15        have to divide those two figures again by two and you end
    16        up with the final figures of what might be considered as
    17        the sort of proportion of risk to heart disease in this
    18        population of people.
    19
    20   Q.   Yes.  Are you assuming that the 1.9 million are eating once
    21        a week throughout their lives?
    22        A.   I am making that assumption throughout the relevant
    23        part of their lives, that is correct, and that is according
    24        to the figures which were given to me as to the number of
    25        people.  It is obviously extremely difficulty to get a hard
    26        and fast answer to the question that I think that you were
    27        asking, and statistically any answer that you produce can
    28        be challenged in a variety of different ways, but it is not
    29        intended to give a hard and fast rule.  It is only intended
    30        to give a sort of numerical guide as to where one might be
    31        going in a population of this size that were eating
    32        regularly at McDonald's.
    33
    34   Q.   And what is the relevant part of their lives which you have
    35        taken?
    36        A.   I think the relevant part of their lives would be -- I
    37        mean, it depends on, you know, you could actually say
    38        almost from the mother eating McDonald's or you could argue
    39        that it was, you know, from childhood right through to
    40        their adult life and, quite clearly, their late exposure in
    41        middle age.
    42
    43   Q.   So it is from an early age, anyway?
    44        A.  Yes, from an early age.
    45
    46   Q.   Through to middle age?
    47        A.  Yes, through to middle age.
    48
    49   Q.   Eating once a week?
    50        A.   Eating regularly once a week, yes.
    51
    52   Q.   Yes, thank you.
    53
    54   MS. STEEL:  But would that mean for people who did not eat at
    55        McDonald's for that length of time on that regular basis
    56        that McDonald's food would have no kind of impact on their
    57        diet or no effect on their health?
    58        A.   I do not know if I could really answer that.  I mean,
    59        if they are not eating at McDonald's, then clearly
    60        McDonald's is not going to have an impact --

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