Day 023 - 13 Sep 94 - Page 32


     
     1        known.  Others, such as diet, are suspected but not
     2        proved.  So what proportion of cancer deaths do we
     3        suspect", in itallics, "are caused by things mentioned in
     4        this book?  And what proportion do we know", in itallics,
     5         "are preventable?"  You saw reference to bracken shoots
     6        earlier.
     7        A.  Yes, I did.
     8
     9   Q.   If I know that bracken shoots may cause me cancer, may
    10        I, as it were, call that a preventable risk by stopping
    11        eating bracken shoots?
    12        A.  Yes.
    13
    14   Q.   Or it might be mouldy bread?
    15        A.  Or mouldy bread, yes.
    16
    17   Q.   Then on the right-hand side beside the columns, the green
    18        or the pale green, as we now know it to be, which is the
    19        faded column above the black in our versions, "Equals
    20        possibly preventable cancer deaths", that is then
    21        explained:  "This gives an idea of what experts believe
    22        may prove to be preventable causes of cancer in the
    23        future."   You called that speculative.  Could you expand
    24        on what you mean by that?
    25        A.  I think at the time that this was produced, there was
    26        a greater conviction that by changing our dietary
    27        practices, reducing fat and so on, we might well be able
    28        to prevent common cancers.  I think what has actually
    29        happened since that time is that studies have become
    30        available to us which have failed to confirm this early
    31        suggestive evidence, and I think the question, therefore,
    32        is much more open than it was in 1989.
    33
    34   Q.   Finally, I think I asked you about this when you gave your
    35        evidence-in-chief in July, but can you turn to page 52 in
    36        the Grey Book in terms of the Conclusion of the section on
    37        Cancer which is at paragraph 3.5.6?  Do you have that?
    38        A.  I do.
    39
    40   Q.   "Conclusions".  This, by the way, was first published in
    41        1991 but has been reprinted in 1994.  "The Panel concluded
    42        that there is currently insufficient evidence on which to
    43        base a recommendation for decrease in fat intakes to
    44        prevent cancer, although an increase in consumption of any
    45        fatty acid should not be encouraged.  The Panel agreed
    46        that the DRVs based on other considerations and presented
    47        in para 3.8 were consistent with a prudent view of the
    48        current data relating dietary fat and the occurrence of
    49        cancer".
    50 
    51        Dr. Arnott, at 3.8 we find what the dietary reference 
    52        values are.  As at 1991 or, indeed, today, since I do not 
    53        always want to have to ask you two questions, what would
    54        be the other considerations which dictated one should not
    55        increase one's fat intake beyond a certain level?
    56        A.  I think the strongest one is coronary heart disease;
    57        I think also diabetes; obviously obesity because of the
    58        implications that obesity may then subsequently have on
    59        one's health.  These are all recommendations for reducing
    60        one's fat intake.

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