Day 017 - 25 Jul 94 - Page 53


     
     1        bowel cancer.
 
     2   Q.   So that is the highest bit of vegetable intake?
              A.  Yes.
     3
         Q.   Has three-quarters a prospect of the lowest?
     4        A.  That is right, but in fact they point out their
              range.  It varies from 57 per cent to over 100 per cent,
     5        so there is this, you know, again they are looking at the
              95 per cent confidence.
     6
         Q.   What is the 95 per cent confidence?
     7        A.  It is this old adage that there is only a 5 per cent
              risk this may have occurred purely by chance.  Inevitably,
     8        there is a range within the figures they quote.  As far as
              women are concerned, the relative risk is even lower.  It
     9        is 60 per cent of women who have a low intake of
              vegetables.  So the effect seems to be stronger for women
    10        than it does for men.
 
    11   Q.   Explain the confidence interval again?
              A.  The benefit may be that women who have a high intake
    12        of vegetables may only have 45 per cent risk compared to
              women who do not take any vegetables at all.  That ranges
    13        from 45 per cent to 86 per cent.  So it is always a
              positive benefit as far as women are concerned.
    14
         Q.   Whereas with men?
    15        A.  With the men some of them actually had a 2 per cent
              worse -----
    16
         Q.   Well, it is about the same?
    17        A.  Yes, it is about the same.
 
    18   Q.   So they varied from just over half the prospect to the
              same prospect?
    19        A.  That is exactly right.
 
    20   MR. RAMPTON:  To pursue his Lordship's line of thought, how is
              that affected when you put asprin into the equation?  If
    21        you turn over the page you will see the figures are
              different, when the high vegetable eaters were also the
    22        people who took asprin regularly and vice versa?
              A.  Well, as you can see what they are saying then is if
    23        you did not take asprin and you did not take vegetables
              you got a risk which is twice  -- two and a half times as
    24        great as somebody who takes asprin and takes a lot of
              vegetables.  That varies between -- again it is all
    25        greater than a 100 per cent.  So the risk varies from,
              say, 10 per cent up to a five-fold increase in risk.  For 
    26        women it was nearly three times the risk if you did not 
              take asprin and did not take vegetables.  That varied from 
    27        a 30 per cent increase in risk to nearly a seven-fold
              increase in risk.
    28
         Q.   So can we then look at the conclusions: "These findings
    29        support the recommendations that increased consumption of
              vegetables may reduce the risk of fatal colon cancer.
    30        Regular use of low doses of asprin may prove to be an
              important supplemental measure." Can one go any further

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