Day 023 - 13 Sep 94 - Page 32
1 known. Others, such as diet, are suspected but not
2 proved. So what proportion of cancer deaths do we
3 suspect", in itallics, "are caused by things mentioned in
4 this book? And what proportion do we know", in itallics,
5 "are preventable?" You saw reference to bracken shoots
6 earlier.
7 A. Yes, I did.
8
9 Q. If I know that bracken shoots may cause me cancer, may
10 I, as it were, call that a preventable risk by stopping
11 eating bracken shoots?
12 A. Yes.
13
14 Q. Or it might be mouldy bread?
15 A. Or mouldy bread, yes.
16
17 Q. Then on the right-hand side beside the columns, the green
18 or the pale green, as we now know it to be, which is the
19 faded column above the black in our versions, "Equals
20 possibly preventable cancer deaths", that is then
21 explained: "This gives an idea of what experts believe
22 may prove to be preventable causes of cancer in the
23 future." You called that speculative. Could you expand
24 on what you mean by that?
25 A. I think at the time that this was produced, there was
26 a greater conviction that by changing our dietary
27 practices, reducing fat and so on, we might well be able
28 to prevent common cancers. I think what has actually
29 happened since that time is that studies have become
30 available to us which have failed to confirm this early
31 suggestive evidence, and I think the question, therefore,
32 is much more open than it was in 1989.
33
34 Q. Finally, I think I asked you about this when you gave your
35 evidence-in-chief in July, but can you turn to page 52 in
36 the Grey Book in terms of the Conclusion of the section on
37 Cancer which is at paragraph 3.5.6? Do you have that?
38 A. I do.
39
40 Q. "Conclusions". This, by the way, was first published in
41 1991 but has been reprinted in 1994. "The Panel concluded
42 that there is currently insufficient evidence on which to
43 base a recommendation for decrease in fat intakes to
44 prevent cancer, although an increase in consumption of any
45 fatty acid should not be encouraged. The Panel agreed
46 that the DRVs based on other considerations and presented
47 in para 3.8 were consistent with a prudent view of the
48 current data relating dietary fat and the occurrence of
49 cancer".
50
51 Dr. Arnott, at 3.8 we find what the dietary reference
52 values are. As at 1991 or, indeed, today, since I do not
53 always want to have to ask you two questions, what would
54 be the other considerations which dictated one should not
55 increase one's fat intake beyond a certain level?
56 A. I think the strongest one is coronary heart disease;
57 I think also diabetes; obviously obesity because of the
58 implications that obesity may then subsequently have on
59 one's health. These are all recommendations for reducing
60 one's fat intake.
