Day 256 - 04 Jun 96 - Page 39


     
     1        A.  Yes, it is true.
     2
     3   Q.   Can I ask you, because I have not fully understood it, what
     4        is the basis for that assumption?
     5        A.  Two bases, one now in retrospect.  First, on the
     6        question of concern of the dietary composition, we had data
     7        from the World Bank, back to 1950s, on some of the key
     8        components of the diets that were consumed during all those
     9        years, and there was considerable stability except for the
    10        periods of 1959 to 1961 when there was a bit of a
    11        starvation at the time; there was a great consistency
    12        during that entire period.
    13
    14        The second point, as I say, we now have in retrospect, it
    15        has to do with the mortality data of 1973 to 1975.  We have
    16        actually gone back again and done the mortality survey
    17        again for the years of 1986 to 1988, and we now have just
    18        the first glimpse of the comparison between 1973 and the
    19        late 80s; and, again, there is great consistency in the
    20        mortality rates.  So, all we have to assume, really, is
    21        that there was stability in these figures -- which,
    22        incidentally, is a very reasonable assumption, particularly
    23        in the case concerning diet, because it is hard to imagine
    24        that they would have gone lower in their dietary fat intake
    25        than what actually was measured in the early 80s.  I mean,
    26        that is a given -----
    27
    28   Q.   Did you collect morbidity (sic) or incidence data?
    29        A.  No, we did not; but we have the second time around.
    30
    31   Q.   Those data have not yet been analysed?
    32        A.  Yes, that is true.
    33
    34   Q.   If you want to make a comparison with -- and this is
    35        obvious, I know -- but if you want to make a comparison
    36        with what one might call Western lifestyle, you either
    37        compare mortality with mortality or incidence with
    38        incidence, do you not?
    39        A.  Yes, that is true.
    40
    41   Q.   You have not yet been able to do it for the latter
    42        category; is that right?
    43        A.  Not for incidence, no.
    44
    45   Q.   No.
    46        A.  Mortality figures are easier to come by, better to use.
    47
    48   Q.   Mortality rate, to some extent, may it not, depend upon the
    49        availability of adequate treatment?
    50        A.  Yes. 
    51 
    52   Q.   How does the Peoples Republic of China compare in that 
    53        respect with the United States of America?
    54        A.  Surprisingly good.  When we first got involved in using
    55        the mortality data that they had collected in the 1970s,
    56        that was of course a question in the uppermost of our
    57        minds, and there was three bodies who went to China and had
    58        a close look at the collection of these data and the
    59        controls that they use, the percentage of the total cases
    60        that were basically examined, at various levels of the

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