Day 011 - 12 Jul 94 - Page 71


     
     1        apply to HCFCs.  If you say that the emission of HCFC is
              very largely corporate, therefore everyone who is
     2        responsible for 1 per cent of that is contributing to the
              whole, I understand you.  It may be different with regard
     3        to methane if a large part is being emitted by bogs which
              have been there for centuries.
     4
         MR. MORRIS:  We will not blame the bogs.
     5
         MR. JUSTICE BELL:  You have to tell me which compartment I am
     6        in.
 
     7   MR. MORRIS:  I think the point I am making is fairly clear.
              I am asking Mr. Duxbury, but obviously that will come up
     8        later in the case.
              A.  Can I have permission to quote from the World
     9        Meteorological Organisation report?  The following:
              "Methane emissions depend upon animal populations as well
    10        as the amount and type of food.  It is difficult to
              estimate the change in the source over the last century
    11        accurately, because the significant increase in the number
              of cattle and sheep has been partially offset by decreases
    12        in the population of elephants and North American bison.
              That means that Crutzen's estimate could be that the
    13        magnitude of the source has increased in anywhere from 21
              terograms of methane to 78 terograms depending on how you
    14        care to do the estimation." This is section 1.3.3.4 of The
              World Meteorological Organisation report.  That, as far as
    15        I can see, is the best estimate at the moment of the
              contribution of domestically bred animals which produce
    16        methane to the amount of methane coming out.  In other
              words, it is rather uncertain.
    17
              So to take a small amount of that, which is in fact
    18        associated with possibly quite a large cattle user, and
              try to decide how much that contributes to the world
    19        methane is, I think, rather difficult.
 
    20   Q.   Yes, I agree with you.
 
    21   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  I am just trying to point out that you may
              be on stronger ground, I am not concluding, with regard to
    22        something like CFC than you are with regard to methane.
              So you do not want to bundle them all up together.
    23
         MR. MORRIS:  My present view is that the numbers game is a bit,
    24        you know, of a trick, but I am not blaming Mr. Duxbury for
              that.  Finally, as a scientist are you aware that public
    25        interest in an issue often sets the agenda for what
              scientists make their issues of concern? 
    26        A.  Yes. 
  
    27   Q.   So, do you feel it was part of the deep concerns of the
              scientific community about the ozone layer, do you feel
    28        that was put high up on the agenda because of concern of
              the public about that issue?
    29        A.  I think if you look at the history of this, I would
              argue that it was put high up on the concern because
    30        people discovered something in measurements which they did
              not understand and which led them to think about something

Prev Next Index