Day 035 - 12 Oct 94 - Page 28
1 A. The Surgeon General's Report does use words to the
2 effect that there are these links and the links, the
3 association may be causal and does not say that beyond a
4 shadow of a doubt it is causal.
5
6 Q. He does not even say "it probably is", does he?
7 A. Perhaps there are a couple of things that might be
8 worth bringing in here. The first is -----
9
10 MR. JUSTICE BELL: Just pause a moment. By all means tell us
11 of those couple of things, but does he use words which
12 amount to "probably" rather than "may"?
13 A. Allow me a moment to read the section of the report.
14
15 Q. The most sensible way to put it might be, in the part
16 which Mr. Rampton has read through with you so far is
17 there anything which you think amounts to "probably"
18 rather than "may"?
19 A. OK, I am sorry. I had switched back to an earlier
20 portion where he uses the word "causal" in somewhat
21 stronger language. Which page are we referring to?
22
23 Q. Page 224 over to the top of page 225. Look at that
24 first. You need not read on after where Mr. Rampton has
25 got to, because what I am going to suggest is, as he reads
26 on, as he will do in due course, if he comes across a
27 phrase which you think amounts to "probably", then I am
28 sure he will not mind you stopping him so that you can
29 make that point.
30 A. All right. Obviously, words are subject to
31 interpretation. But perhaps the first sentence in the
32 last full paragraph on page 224 is as close as the Surgeon
33 General seems to be getting in this passage to talking
34 about probabilities as opposed to simply possibilities
35 where he uses the words, "Studies of carcinogen-induced
36 tumorigenesis in experimental animals and international
37 epidemiologic comparisons have provided substantial but
38 not conclusive evidence that dietary fat increases the
39 risk" and talks about cancers of the breast, colon and
40 others.
41
42 So, if one is trying to differentiate between a
43 possibility, a probability and a certainty, he is not
44 speaking of a certainty but he, in my reading, is talking
45 about much more than simply a possibility.
46
47 Q. Is it fair to say that is when he is considering two
48 methods of investigation and then he goes on to consider
49 other methods of investigation?
50 A. I am not sure what follows, but, yes.
51
52 MR. RAMPTON: Yes. You see, it does, does it not, Dr. Barnard,
53 because if that were the whole of the Surgeon General's
54 opinion on this matter, we would not get what we get at
55 the end of that paragraph, which is this: "Despite such
56 complications, the animal and international epidemiologic
57 data suggest that a decrease in fat consumption by the
58 general public etc. might reduce the risk of certain
59 cancers"; he would say, would he not, "probably will and
60 you should set about doing it now for the good of your
